For many businesses — from hospitality and retail to trades and tourism — winter can also mean slower sales, tighter margins, and trickier cash flow.
This guide will walk you through everything you need to know about forecasting cash flow effectively through the winter months, with tools, templates, and Perth-specific insights.
Understanding Perth's Seasonal Business Cycles
Perth's economy has its own rhythm, shaped by weather, school holidays, tourism patterns, and industry shifts. Some typical winter impacts:- Hospitality slows with fewer tourists and locals staying in.
- Retail can dip before ramping up again in spring.
- Trades face project delays due to wet weather and site access.
- Events and tourism see lower foot traffic and reduced bookings.
- Even B2B services can feel the ripple effects of reduced spending in consumer-facing industries.
The 13-Week Rolling Forecast Methodology
Forget vague annual budgets — what you need in winter is visibility, week by week.
What is a 13-week rolling forecast?
A 13-week cash flow forecast shows your expected cash in and cash out over the next three months — and gets updated every single week.
Why it works:
- Short enough to spot problems early
- Long enough to plan around them
- Dynamic and responsive to real-time changes
How to build one:
- Start with your opening bank balance
- List all expected income, by week — include sales, loans, grants, refunds
- List all outgoings — wages, rent, supplier payments, BAS, loan repayments
- Calculate net cash movement and update your balance weekly
- Update weekly with actuals vs forecast and roll it forward
Tools Comparison: Xero vs Float vs Spreadsheets
There's no one-size-fits-all tool, but here's a quick rundown of the most popular options for Perth small businesses:
Tip: If your business is highly seasonal or cash-sensitive, a spreadsheet may give you the most control — especially with weekly adjustments.
Common Cash Flow Mistakes to Avoid
Even savvy business owners can fall into forecasting traps. Watch out for these common errors:
❌ Overestimating revenue
Be realistic. Base income projections on confirmed bookings or past winter data — not optimistic guesses. This figures are not their to impress anytime they are to see if you can manage what you have.
❌ Forgetting irregular or quarterly expenses
Things like BAS, insurance premiums, or annual subscriptions can derail an otherwise healthy forecast.
❌ Confusing profit with cash flow
Just because a job is profitable doesn't mean it's paying the bills this week. Focus on timing, not just totals. Think about when your projects get billed, if 2 big ones get finished in one week maybe it is worth billing one in the following week.
❌ Not updating forecasts regularly
A stale forecast is a useless one. Keep it alive by updating weekly with actuals and adjusting projections accordingly.
Winter-Specific Cash Flow Strategies
If winter tends to chill your revenue, here are some proactive steps to stay ahead:
✅ Negotiate supplier payment terms
Can you stretch 14-day terms to 30? Every extra day helps your cash position.
✅ Tighten credit policies
Now's not the time to let invoices sit unpaid. Follow up promptly and offer early payment incentives. But you should have your debt collection policies in place year around. I like money but I like it more in my account.
✅ Delay non-critical spending
Push back purchases or upgrades that aren't immediately necessary.
✅ Use downtime for prep and marketing
Invest time (not just money) in process improvement, staff training, or gearing up for spring promotions.
✅ Secure a working capital buffer
If you know cash gets tight, consider applying for a line of credit or business loan before you're in the squeeze.
Don't Just Survive — Plan to Thrive
Cash flow forecasting isn't about doom and gloom. It's about clarity, control, and confidence.
With a 13-week forecast and the right tools in hand, your Perth business can tackle winter with a strategy, not just hope. And come spring, you'll be in a stronger position to grow.
Need help getting started?
Ask your bookkeeper for a custom 13-week template, or explore tools like Float or Fathom. The best time to forecast was yesterday. The second-best time? Right now.
